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As a result, different oil forecasting studies have included different classes of liquid fuels.Some use the terms "conventional" oil for what is included in the model, and "unconventional" oil for classes excluded.

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Less than 10 Gb/yr of oil were discovered each year between 20. Energy Information Administration has pointed out that after the first wave of discoveries in an area, most oil and natural gas reserve growth comes not from discoveries of new fields, but from extensions and additional gas found within existing fields.

As the industrial effort to extract new unconventional oil sources increases, this has a compounding negative effect on all sectors of the economy, leading to economic stagnation or even eventual contraction.